Cases of COVID-19 surged 63% in Central Florida last week, new federal data show, as the more infectious delta variant spreads across the region, reversing months of steady declines in infections.

In Orange County — where new cases are concentrated in residents age 15 to 34 — health officials warned that vaccination rates are waning and pleaded for people to take advantage of free vaccines available throughout the region.

“Unvaccinated people are a factory for variants,” said Dr. Raul Pino, the state’s top health officer in Orange County. “The worst scenario ... [is] a variant that is so aggressive that the vaccine will not be effective. What we want to do is to reduce the pool in which the virus can thrive in our community — and that’s [now] about 40% of our community. And that’s a significant number.”

Both Orange County and the region are categorized as a “hotspot” of transmission in the most recent community profile issued by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which examines data from June 28 to July 4. Florida as a whole had 15% of the nation’s new coronavirus cases last week — 11,760 — more than any other state, with a 52% increase in infections among children under 12, for whom there is not yet an authorized vaccine.

The positivity rate for those undergoing COVID testing is now above the 5% target in all local counties, including 5.9% in Orange, 8.1% in Seminole, 7.1% in Lake and 6% in Osceola.

Epidemiologist Jason Salemi, an associate professor at the University of South Florida College of Public Health, said it’s too soon to say whether the latest data represents a troubling trend or one-time spike. But there are several factors that point to a continuing rise.

“Every week that passes, we’re starting to see the delta variant become increasingly prevalent,” said Salemi, who produces his own Florida COVID-19 Dashboard using state and federal data. “It’s also the fact that we still have a pretty substantial proportion of our population that is not protected by full vaccination. I think you’re going to see the delta variant and any other variants that are more transmissible prey upon communities that are largely unvaccinated.”

Nationally, the highly contagious delta variant has become the dominant strain of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to new estimates from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Meanwhile, Salemi said, many people have stopped taking the precautions they once did — wearing masks and social distancing — after several months of declines in COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

“We’ve been dealing with this for so long that I think there’s just a tremendous amount of fatigue,” he said.

Data from the Florida Department of Health show that, as of June 30, at least 280 COVID cases involving the delta variant had been detected statewide, although only between 5% and 10% of cases are tested for the mutations. The number includes 40 cases in Orange County alone, a figure that has more than doubled in the past two weeks.

Vaccination continues to offer the best protection, officials said. The county determined that 177 of 185 COVID deaths in Orange County since Feb. 6 were among unvaccinated people. And 506 of 530 people hospitalized for COVID since that date were also unvaccinated.

“It means that 95% of hospitalizations and 95% of deaths are mostly preventable if those individuals were fully vaccinated,” Pino said. “Please, please, please, do it for you, your family, your friends.”

Despite the odds, though, one of the two deaths from a COVID case involving the delta variant occurred in someone who had been fully vaccinated.

“The person was greater than 75 years old and lived in a long-term care facility,” said epidemiologist Alvina Chu, director for the division of infectious diseases at the Florida Department of Health in Orange County. “Basically, some older persons do not build good immunity, or their immune systems work differently, or the person might have comorbidities or be immune-compromised, which might interfere with the vaccine’s effectiveness.”

The other death, she noted, was in someone between 35 and 44 years old who was unvaccinated.

“So that was a young person, and that may have been potentially completely preventable,” she said.

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings noted that vaccines are still widely available at no cost, including at the county’s drive-through site at Barnett Park, which is open seven days a week.

“My worst fear is that more people will die and more people will contract a disease ... that could be preventable,” Demings said.

Source: Orlando Sentinel

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-cases-florida-surge-with-delta-variant-20210707-uajn67f5qngutgjswnb4yd6ah4-story.html

ksantich@orlandosentinel.com; shudak@orlandosentinel.com